The economist: the Income of Russians will recover, if not the second wave of coronavirus

In terms of recovery of Russia, which Mikhail Mishustin presented to Vladimir Putin, a lot of uncertainty and it is calculated that the second wave COVID-19 in the country. This opinion with the correspondent of “Rosbalt” said the Dean of the faculty of Economics of the European University in Saint-Petersburg Julia vumyatin.

“Mikhail Mishustin told the President that the Russian economy by the end of the recovery needs an increase above the pre-crisis and by the end of 2021 to achieve GDP growth rate of 2.5%. My hypothesis is that when choosing the right reference point the growth is really possible to. So, optimism about the pace of growth may be associated with the low base effect — if we plummeted this year, to growth of 2.5 percent is easy,” explains the economist.

Julia vumyatin draws attention to the uncertainty of the numbers in the report — it is unclear what to compare.

“with regard to the income of Russians, it is expected that they will recover in the period from October 2020 to June 2021. Obviously, economists believe that the second wave of the coronavirus in the fall will not be like re-closure of companies and enterprises. Although no one is sure that we will escape. And we will influence the situation in the world — if other countries will not be new waves of infection, the world economy will recover, and the price of oil and gas. And then indeed we may hope that in Russia everything will be fine. Again aktiviziruyutsya investment projects in the energy sectors, it will affect employment, and income — after all, it’s a big growth driver of our economy. On investment, by the way, will affect the appearance of the vaccine — it will give at least some confidence in the future,” the economist said.

Julia vumyatin Also notes that the plan to rebuild the economy it is proposed to continue to attract investment in national projects, and it seems she logsCNIM. Logical and support of major investors through the mechanism of agreements on the protection and promotion of investments. But there are pitfalls.

“we are Talking primarily about major investors, but the question is, who will such projects to select and how they will fit what is really needed for the economy. There is a risk that prolobbirovat projects that are not too advantageous for the economy,” said vumyatin.

we will Remind, on June 2, Mikhail Mishustin presented to the President a national plan to rebuild the economy, which will cost 5 trillion rubles. According to the report, it is expected that by the end of next year economy will come to a steady growth of 2.5%, unemployment will be below 5%, real wages will grow by no less than 2.5% in annual terms, while the poverty rate will be lower than 12.3% of the total population.

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