lost Both partners of the Grand coalition at the Federal level in the Hesse state election, many voters to other parties. The views of the voters hike makes the discontent with the CDU and the SPD are clearly visible.

Many of these swing voters decided even be aware of it, to give the Federal government a lesson. 73 percent of the emigrants Hessian CDU voters said in a survey by Infratest dimap. Also, 53 percent of the former SPD-voters had this motif.

Where were the voters?

First of all: The location within the (former) electorate of the CDU is polarized. This is shown by the fact that they lost the majority of voters in two very different parties. 96,000 of them migrated to the right-wing populist AfD. 108.000 made their cross in the in the Hesse revival of the Green.

Even more clearly, the Grand coalition Partner, the SPD votes lost to the Greens. 142.000 their previous voters gave their vote to the current Wiesbaden government partner to the top candidate Tarek Al-Wazir. 39.000 chose now AfD. Only 44 percent of its voters were able to keep the social Democrats in comparison to 2013.

The Frustration of the previous CDU – and SPD-voters was large. Together, about 200,000 of its former voters remained on election Sunday. All of the others in the Hesse state Parliament, elected parties could not, by the way enable a total of more voters, than to those lost. Especially the AfD benefited here. The right-wing populists picked up the votes of 32,000 Hess indoor and Hesse, who had remained at the previous election to the house.

trek model methodology of the migration model

According to infratest dimap the migration model the migration flows between the two elections on the Basis of the second votes. The voters of migration flows between the parties and the “retention rates” for identical parties. Basis of official statistics, representative surveys and the outcome of the provisional count on election Sunday. In the voters hike, current and former non-voters are taken into account, as well as Changes in the composition of the electorate (residents and about voters as well as new first-time voters and deceased former voters).

the estimation of The migration flows, we show that a net balance of Form. After the publication of the preliminary results, a final estimate is made and published. On this Basis, a presentation with a To – and Outflow between the individual parties.

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